Substantially reducing global PM2.5-related deaths under SDG3.9 requires better air pollution control and healthcare.

The United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.9 calls for a substantial reduction in deaths attributable to PM2.5 pollution (DAPP). However, DAPP projections vary greatly and the likelihood of meeting SDG3.9 depends on complex interactions among environmental, socio-economic, and healthcare parameters. We project potential future trends in global DAPP considering the joint effects of each driver (PM2.5 concentration, death rate of diseases, population size, and age structure) and assess the likelihood of achieving SDG3.9 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) as quantified by the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) framework with simulated PM2.5 concentrations from 11 models. We find that a substantial reduction in DAPP would not be achieved under all but the most optimistic scenario settings. Even the development aligned with the Sustainability scenario (SSP1-2.6), in which DAPP was reduced by 19%, still falls just short of achieving a substantial (≥20%) reduction by 2030. Meeting SDG3.9 calls for additional efforts in air pollution control and healthcare to more aggressively reduce DAPP.

Habitat suitability maps for Australian flora and fauna under CMIP6 climate scenarios.

BACKGROUND: Spatial information about the location and suitability of areas for native plant and animal species under different climate futures is an important input to land use and conservation planning and management. Australia, renowned for its abundant species diversity and endemism, often relies on modeled data to assess species distributions due to the country's vast size and the challenges associated with conducting on-ground surveys on such a large scale. The objective of this article is to develop habitat suitability maps for Australian flora and fauna under different climate futures. RESULTS: Using MaxEnt, we produced Australia-wide habitat suitability maps under RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP7.0-SSP3, and RCP8.5-SSP5 climate futures for 1,382 terrestrial vertebrates and 9,251 vascular plants vascular plants at 5 km2 for open access. This represents 60% of all Australian mammal species, 77% of amphibian species, 50% of reptile species, 71% of bird species, and 44% of vascular plant species. We also include tabular data, which include summaries of total quality-weighted habitat area of species under different climate scenarios and time periods. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial data supplied can help identify important and sensitive locations for species under various climate futures. Additionally, the supplied tabular data can provide insights into the impacts of climate change on biodiversity in Australia. These habitat suitability maps can be used as input data for landscape and conservation planning or species management, particularly under different climate change scenarios in Australia.

Intranational synergies and trade-offs reveal common and differentiated priorities of sustainable development goals in China.

Accelerating efforts for the Sustainable Development Goals requires understanding their synergies and trade-offs at the national and sub-national levels, which will help identify the key hurdles and opportunities to prioritize them in an indivisible manner for a country. Here, we present the importance of the 17 goals through synergy and trade-off networks. Our results reveal that 19 provinces show the highest trade-offs in SDG13 (Combating Climate Change) or SDG5 (Gender Equality) consistent with the national level, with other 12 provinces varying. 24 provinces show the highest synergies in SDG1 (No Poverty) or SDG6 (Clean Water and Sanitation) consistent with the national level, with the remaining 7 provinces varying. These common but differentiated SDG priorities reflect that to ensure a coordinated national response, China should pay more attention to the provincial situation, so that provincial governments can formulate more targeted policies in line with their own priorities towards accelerating sustainable development.

Global hidden spillover effects among concurrent green initiatives.

Concurrently implemented green initiatives to combat global environmental crises may be curtailed or even sacrificed given the ongoing global economic contraction. We collected empirical data and information about green initiatives from 15 sites or countries worldwide. We systematically explored how specific policy, intended behaviors, and gains of given green initiative may interact with those of other green initiatives concurrently implemented in the same geographic area or involving the same recipients. Surprisingly, we found that spillover effects were very divergent: one initiative could reduce the gain of another by 22 % âˆ¼ 100 %, representing alarming losses, while in other instances, substantial co-benefits could arise as one initiative can increase the gain of another by 9 % âˆ¼ 310 %. Leveraging these effects will help countries keep green initiatives with significant co-benefits but stop initiatives with substantial spillover losses in the face of widespread budget cuts, better meeting the United Nations' sustainable development goals.

A global land cover training dataset from 1984 to 2020.

State-of-the-art cloud computing platforms such as Google Earth Engine (GEE) enable regional-to-global land cover and land cover change mapping with machine learning algorithms. However, collection of high-quality training data, which is necessary for accurate land cover mapping, remains costly and labor-intensive. To address this need, we created a global database of nearly 2 million training units spanning the period from 1984 to 2020 for seven primary and nine secondary land cover classes. Our training data collection approach leveraged GEE and machine learning algorithms to ensure data quality and biogeographic representation. We sampled the spectral-temporal feature space from Landsat imagery to efficiently allocate training data across global ecoregions and incorporated publicly available and collaborator-provided datasets to our database. To reflect the underlying regional class distribution and post-disturbance landscapes, we strategically augmented the database. We used a machine learning-based cross-validation procedure to remove potentially mis-labeled training units. Our training database is relevant for a wide array of studies such as land cover change, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, urban development, among many others.

The challenge of population aging for mitigating deaths from PM2.5 air pollution in China.

Estimating the health burden of air pollution against the background of population aging is of great significance for achieving the Sustainable Development Goal 3.9 which aims to substantially reduce the deaths and illnesses from air pollution. Here, we estimated spatiotemporal changes in deaths attributable to PM2.5 air pollution in China from 2000 to 2035 and examined the drivers. The results show that from 2019 to 2035, deaths were projected to decease 15.4% (6.6%-20.7%, 95% CI) and 8.4% (0.6%-13.5%) under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenario, respectively, but increase 10.4% (5.1%-20.5%) and 18.1% (13.0%-28.3%) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios. Population aging will be the leading contributor to increased deaths attributable to PM2.5 air pollution, which will counter the positive gains achieved by improvements in air pollution and healthcare. Region-specific measures are required to mitigate the health burden of air pollution and this requires long-term efforts and mutual cooperation among regions in China.

Optimal pathways for upgrading China's wastewater treatment plants for achieving water quality standards at least economic and environmental cost.

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in China must be upgraded to meet new discharge standards, but this incurs both economic and environmental costs and benefits. To select the optimal upgrade pathway, we developed ten upgrade paths based on two common decision-making scenarios for WWTP upgrade in developing countries. Using model simulation, life-cycle assessment, life-cycle cost, and multiple-attribute decision-making, we incorporated the full costs and benefits associated with the construction and operation into the decision-making process. We used a weighting scheme of attributes for the three regions and ranked the upgrade paths using the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS). The results showed that constructed wetlands and sand filtration were advantageous in terms of lower economic costs and environmental impacts, while the denitrification filter pathways required less land. Optimal pathways differed by region, highlighting the importance of a detailed and integrated assessment of the costs and benefits of WWTP upgrade options over the full life cycle. Our findings can inform decision-making on upgrading China's WWTPs to meet stringent discharge standards and protect inland water and coastal environments.

Climate-friendly and nutrition-sensitive interventions can close the global dietary nutrient gap while reducing GHG emissions.

Sustainable food systems require malnutrition and climate change to be addressed in parallel. Here, we estimate the non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions resulting from closing the world's dietary nutrient gap-that between country-level nutrient supply and population requirements-for energy, protein, iron, zinc, vitamin A, vitamin B12 and folate under five climate-friendly intervention scenarios in 2030. We show that improving crop and livestock productivity and halving food loss and waste can close the nutrient gap with up to 42% lower emissions (3.03 Gt CO2eq yr-1) compared with business-as-usual supply patterns with a persistent nutrient gap (5.48 Gt CO2eq yr-1). Increased production and trade of vegetables, eggs, and roots and tubers can close the nutrient gap with the lowest emissions in most countries-with ≤23% increase in total caloric production required for 2030 relative to 2015. We conclude that the world's nutrient gap could be closed without exceeding global climate targets and without drastic changes to national food baskets.

Unintended consequences of combating desertification in China.

Since the early 2000s, China has carried out extensive "grain-for-green" and grazing exclusion practices to combat desertification in the desertification-prone region (DPR). However, the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of these practices remain unclear. We quantify and compare the changes in fractional vegetation cover (FVC) with economic and population data in the DPR before and after the implementation of these environmental programmes. Here we show that climatic change and CO2 fertilization are relatively strong drivers of vegetation rehabilitation from 2001-2020 in the DPR, and the declines in the direct incomes of farmers and herders caused by ecological practices exceed the subsidies provided by governments. To minimize economic hardship, enhance food security, and improve the returns on policy investments in the DPR, China needs to adapt its environmental programmes to address the potential impacts of future climate change and create positive synergies to combat desertification and improve the economy in this region.

Multi-target scenario discovery to plan for sustainable food and land systems in Australia.

The development of detailed national pathways towards sustainable food and land systems aims to provide stakeholders with clarity on how long-term goals could be achieved and to reduce roadblocks in the way to making commitments. However, the inability to perfectly capture the relationships between all variables in a system and the unknown probability of future values (deep uncertainty) makes it very difficult to design scenarios that account for the full breadth of system uncertainty. Here we use scenario discovery to systematically explore the effect of different parameter ranges on model outputs, and design resilient pathways to sustainability in which multiple target achievement requires a broad portfolio of solutions. We use a model of the Australian food and land system, the FABLE (Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land-use, Energy) Calculator, to investigate conditions for achieving a sustainable Australian food and land system under scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 1, 2, and 3 narratives. Here we link the FABLE Calculator with a Monte Carlo simulation tool to explore hundreds of thousands of scenarios. This allows us to identify the ranges of systemic drivers that achieve multiple sustainability targets around diets, net forest growth, agricultural water consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity conservation, and exports by 2050. Our results show that livestock productivity and density, afforestation, and dietary change are powerful influencers for sustainability target achievement. Around 10% of the SSP1 scenarios could achieve all modelled sustainability targets. However, practically none of the scenarios based on SSP2 and SSP3 narratives could achieve such targets. The results suggest that there are options to achieve a more sustainable and resilient Australian food and land-use system with better socio-economic and environmental outcomes than under current trends. However, its achievement requires significant structural changes and coordinated interventions in several components of the domestic food and land system to increase its resilience and environmental and socio-economic performance. Understanding the bounds within which this system needs to change and operate to achieve sustainability targets will enable greater clarity and flexibility during discussions between decision-makers and stakeholders. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-022-01202-2.

Mapping global lake dynamics reveals the emerging roles of small lakes.

Lakes are important natural resources and carbon gas emitters and are undergoing rapid changes worldwide in response to climate change and human activities. A detailed global characterization of lakes and their long-term dynamics does not exist, which is however crucial for evaluating the associated impacts on water availability and carbon emissions. Here, we map 3.4 million lakes on a global scale, including their explicit maximum extents and probability-weighted area changes over the past four decades. From the beginning period (1984-1999) to the end (2010-2019), the lake area increased across all six continents analyzed, with a net change of +46,278 km2, and 56% of the expansion was attributed to reservoirs. Interestingly, although small lakes (<1 km2) accounted for just 15% of the global lake area, they dominated the variability in total lake size in half of the global inland lake regions. The identified lake area increase over time led to higher lacustrine carbon emissions, mostly attributed to small lakes. Our findings illustrate the emerging roles of small lakes in regulating not only local inland water variability, but also the global trends of surface water extent and carbon emissions.

Survey data on climate change adaptation and barriers to adoption among smallholder farmers in Nepal.

The dataset presents the raw data collected through household surveys of smallholder farmers on adaptation to climatic variabilities and change in Sudurpaschim Pradesh (Far Western Province), Nepal. The dataset comprises farmers' responses on the likely determinants of adaptation decisions, actual uptake of adaptation measures, and the barriers to adaptation. We collected the data by conducting face-to-face interviews of 327 farmers using structured questionnaires in all nine districts representing the Mountain, Hill, and Terai agroecosystems in the province. We employed a stratified random sampling technique to recruit participants and interviewed them during December 2019 and March 2020. The interview methodology was approved by the Human Ethics Review Committee at Deakin University, Australia. The dataset is important for understanding the drivers of climate change adaptation and the barriers to adaptation to enhance the resilience of smallholder agriculture in far-western Nepal and can inform climate change adaptation strategies for the region and for the smallholder agroecosystems more broadly. The data are provided with this article.

Future global urban water scarcity and potential solutions.

Urbanization and climate change are together exacerbating water scarcity-where water demand exceeds availability-for the world's cities. We quantify global urban water scarcity in 2016 and 2050 under four socioeconomic and climate change scenarios, and explored potential solutions. Here we show the global urban population facing water scarcity is projected to increase from 933 million (one third of global urban population) in 2016 to 1.693-2.373 billion people (one third to nearly half of global urban population) in 2050, with India projected to be most severely affected in terms of growth in water-scarce urban population (increase of 153-422 million people). The number of large cities exposed to water scarcity is projected to increase from 193 to 193-284, including 10-20 megacities. More than two thirds of water-scarce cities can relieve water scarcity by infrastructure investment, but the potentially significant environmental trade-offs associated with large-scale water scarcity solutions must be guarded against.

Climate change adaptation for managing non-timber forest products in the Nepalese Himalaya.

Non-timber forest products (NTFPs) contribute to the well-being of mountain communities in many ways but their availability is being impacted by climate change. Policy and programs to enhance adaptation can alleviate these impacts, but to be effective they require an understanding of mountain community perceptions of climate change impacts on NTFPs and the perceived barriers to climate change adaptation. Here, we explored mountain communities' adaptation responses to the perceived impacts of climate change on NTFPs and people's barriers to adaptation using a structured questionnaire delivered as a field-based survey of 278 forest-dependent households from the Upper Madi Watershed of Nepal. We present a quantitative graphical exploration of the results to provide a simple overview of climate change impacts of NTFPs and local adaptation. The most common adaptation practices adopted by the mountain communities in the study area include the self-regulation of over-collection of NTFPs, alternative income generating activities, improved stoves, agroforestry, and sourcing alternative tools and materials. However, adaptation options to deal with increased invasive plant species and pest insect outbreaks appear to be challenging despite having the highest perceived impact on NTFPs. Adaptation practices are constrained by several factors such as the lack of predictability of extreme events and climate-related hazards, lack of technical knowledge, fatalistic beliefs and perceived lack of agency, and limited government support. Our results can inform policies and programs required for addressing the impacts of climate change on mountain communities in Nepal and other developing nations.

Co-creating local socioeconomic pathways for achieving the sustainable development goals.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) recognise the importance of action across all scales to achieve a sustainable future. To contribute to overall national- and global-scale SDG achievement, local communities need to focus on a locally-relevant subset of goals and understand potential future pathways for key drivers which influence local sustainability. We developed a participatory method to co-create local socioeconomic pathways by downscaling the SDGs and driving forces of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) via a local case study in southern Australia through contextual analysis and community engagement. We linked the SSPs and SDGs by identifying driving forces and describing how they affect the achievement of local SDGs. We co-created six local socioeconomic pathways with the local community which track towards futures with different levels of fulfilment of the SDGs and each encompasses a narrative storyline incorporating locally-specific ideas from the community. We tested and validated the local pathways with the community. This method extends the SSPs in two dimensions-into the broader field of sustainability via the SDGs, and by recontextualizing them at the local scale. The local socioeconomic pathways can contribute to achieving local sustainability goals from the bottom up in alignment with global initiatives.

Pesticide Toxicity Hazard of Agriculture: Regional and Commodity Hotspots in Australia.

While the need to reduce the impacts of pesticide use on the environment is increasingly acknowledged, the existing data on the use of agricultural chemicals are hardly adequate to support this goal. This study presents a novel, spatially explicit, national-scale baseline analysis of pesticide toxicity hazard (the potential for chemicals to do harm). The results show an uneven contribution of land uses and growing regions toward the national aggregate toxicity hazard. A hectare of horticultural crops generates on average ten times more aquatic ecotoxicity hazard and five times more human toxicity hazard than a hectare of broadacre crops, but the higher yields and incomes in horticulture mean that both sectors are similar in terms of environmental efficiency. Livestock is the sector with the least contribution to overall hazard, even when the indirect hazard associated with feed is considered. Metrics such as pesticide use (kg/ha) or spray frequency (sprays/ha), commonly reported in highly aggregated forms, are not linearly related to toxicity hazard and are therefore less informative in driving reductions in impact. We propose toxicity hazard as a more suitable indicator for real-world risk than quantity of pesticide used, especially because actual risk can often be difficult to quantify. Our results will help broaden the discussion around pathways toward sustainability in the land-use sector and identify targeted priorities for action.

Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals.

Food system innovations will be instrumental to achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, major innovation breakthroughs can trigger profound and disruptive changes, leading to simultaneous and interlinked reconfigurations of multiple parts of the global food system. The emergence of new technologies or social solutions, therefore, have very different impact profiles, with favourable consequences for some SDGs and unintended adverse side-effects for others. Stand-alone innovations seldom achieve positive outcomes over multiple sustainability dimensions. Instead, they should be embedded as part of systemic changes that facilitate the implementation of the SDGs. Emerging trade-offs need to be intentionally addressed to achieve true sustainability, particularly those involving social aspects like inequality in its many forms, social justice, and strong institutions, which remain challenging. Trade-offs with undesirable consequences are manageable through the development of well planned transition pathways, careful monitoring of key indicators, and through the implementation of transparent science targets at the local level.

Changes in supply and demand mediate the effects of land-use change on freshwater ecosystem services flows.

Land-use change alters the dynamics of freshwater ecosystem services flows by affecting both service supply (by influencing hydrological processes and runoff) and demand (via changes in human water use). However, few studies have considered the wide range of effects of land-use change on freshwater ecosystem services' flows. In this study, we distinguished the impacts of changing water supply and demand in the Aojiang River watershed, Fujian Province, China, an important water resource for more than seven million people. Rapid urbanization between 1991 and 2015 led to a minor increase of 2.5% in the supply of freshwater ecosystem services. However, demand increased by 96.3%, leading to a 25.7% overall decrease in freshwater ecosystem services flows. Downstream demand for freshwater increased substantially due to large shifts in agricultural, urban, and industrial activities. Our analysis provides detailed information on freshwater ecosystem services flows from supply to beneficiaries within a watershed, thus facilitating integrated watershed management and decision making. This study demonstrates how land-use change and ecosystem services' flows can be integrated both at local and regional scales for land-use management, water reallocation, and ecological compensation, thus promoting the sustainability of freshwater ecosystems.